Should I start Mitchell Evans or Ray Davis? (PPR Week 11 2026)

THE FF CALL

Slight lean: Mitchell Evans

Week 11 · PPR

Mitchell Evans has the higher current FF forecast: 3.2 FP versus 3.1 FP. The 0.1-point gap is small; saved experimental forecasts provide context, not a separate override.

Mitchell Evans: 4.7 FP recent scoring average.
Ray Davis: 1.6 FP recent scoring average.

Forecast updated Nov 13, 2026, 4:07 PM ET · PPR

FF PICK

Mitchell Evans

TE · CARStats & schedule

3.2FF projected

↑ +0.2 vs ESPN

vs BAL

Sun 1:00 PM ET

THE ALTERNATIVE

Ray Davis

RB · BUFStats & schedule

3.1FF projected

↑ +1.2 vs ESPN

vs MIA

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Your next decision

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Scoring & lineup notes

PPR awards one point per reception; half-PPR awards 0.5; standard awards none. Custom league rules can change the result. Confirm active status, kickoff and lineup locks. Projections are estimates; completed-week scores are actuals.

FORTIFIED RANKINGS · Rankings position

FLEX. The bigger picture.

Ranked by FF expected points. Displayed ties favor the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin. Medians and ranges add context.

FF expected pointsMedian · when availableWindow: experimental middle 80%● ESPN● Sleeper● FantasyPros

3 shown · common FP scale

20.127.3

FF MEAN

1
Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC vs ARISun 1:00 PM ETCheck availability · Range unavailable
Mean 23.9Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 27.3Sleeper 22.6FantasyPros 21.1
23.9Expected FP
2
CeeDee LambWR · DAL vs TENSun 1:00 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 23.8Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 22.1Sleeper 21.1FantasyPros 21.5
23.8Expected FP
3
Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN vs WASMon 8:15 PM ETRange unavailable
Mean 23.0Range unavailable
Median unavailable
ESPN 23.6Sleeper 20.1FantasyPros 20.1
23.0Expected FP

How the forecast and ranges work

FF uses position-specific provider weights, rescored CBS and FFToday stats, and the existing bounded form, defense and metric adjustments. Saved Boosted Trees and Workload have bounded model influence when available. Monte Carlo supplies the distribution; it does not get a duplicate mean vote.

Every player is ranked by the FF expected score (mean), whether or not a simulation distribution is available. Equal displayed scores use the higher FF-minus-ESPN margin when both ESPN forecasts are known, then unrounded FF, a comparable FantasyPros/Sleeper estimate, and stable identity order if still level. This tiebreaker is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. The median marker is additional information and never changes the order. Missing or availability-conditional ranges do not switch the ranking statistic. The window shows the experimental middle 80% (P10–P90), rather than the difference between two model means. Its observed coverage under this new version is still collecting. Availability-conditional distributions are labeled and are not shifted to a different center.

Missing sources and incompatible scoring are excluded. Bye and confirmed unavailable players remain excluded. ESPN, Sleeper and FantasyPros are the benchmark markers. The common scale covers the displayed outcome windows and available benchmarks.