Who should I pick up: Harrison Butker or Wil Lutz?

The claim now. The weeks ahead. Make room for the right player.

Reception scoring does not change these projections. One comparison covers PPR, Half-PPR and Standard.

THE PICKUP CALL

For this week: Wil Lutz

The displayed FF scores are tied. Wil Lutz gets the tiebreaker: FF is -0.6 FP versus ESPN, compared with -1.0 for Harrison Butker. The higher FF-minus-ESPN margin is preferred; this is not a measured probability of beating ESPN. A longer-term pickup decision can differ; compare roster fit and the outlook before dropping anyone.

Forecast updated Oct 31, 2:04 PM ET · Common scoring preset

THE ALTERNATIVE

Harrison Butker

K · KC · vs DEN

Stats & schedule ›

7.8FF projected FP

Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET

60.0%rostered on ESPN-0.50 pp recent change

THIS-WEEK PICKUP

Wil Lutz

K · DEN · vs KC

Stats & schedule ›

7.8FF projected FP

Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET

5.0%rostered on ESPN+0.01 pp recent change

WHY THIS PICKUP?

Fit the move to the job.

Wil Lutz is the stronger immediate points option. Wil Lutz is more widely available across ESPN leagues, but league-wide ownership cannot tell us who is available in yours. For a K vacancy, compare the immediate matchup with the weeks you actually need covered. A rising roster percentage can explain interest in a player; it does not increase his projected score. If you must drop someone, check the full roster in GamePlan before making the claim.

Harrison Butker

Harrison Butker projects for 7.8 Standard points against DEN this week. His recent scoring average is 7.0 FP. He is rostered in 60.0% of ESPN leagues, with a reported decline of 0.50 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

Fortified Fantasy: 7.8 FP
ESPN: 8.8 FP
Sleeper: 7.6 FP
FantasyPros: 7.3 FP
FF median: 6.8 FP
Boosted Trees: 8.2 FP
Monte Carlo: 8.7 FP

FF median: Experimental · middle 50%: 4.4–10.8 FP · middle 80%: 1.9–14.8 FP. Prospective coverage is collecting.
Boosted Trees: Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET
Monte Carlo: Experimental · central 80%: 2.2–16.5 FP · saved Oct 28, 9:16 PM ET

Wil Lutz

Wil Lutz projects for 7.8 Standard points against KC this week. His recent scoring average is 10.3 FP. He is rostered in 5.0% of ESPN leagues, with a reported gain of 0.01 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

Fortified Fantasy: 7.8 FP
ESPN: 8.4 FP
Sleeper: 7.1 FP
FantasyPros: 6.6 FP
FF median: 6.9 FP
Boosted Trees: 8.3 FP
Monte Carlo: 8.4 FP

FF median: Experimental · middle 50%: 4.4–10.7 FP · middle 80%: 2.3–14.7 FP. Prospective coverage is collecting.
Boosted Trees: Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET
Monte Carlo: Experimental · central 80%: 2.5–15.9 FP · saved Oct 28, 9:16 PM ET

Roster data as of Oct 31, 1:30 PM ET / Oct 31, 1:30 PM ET. Recent change uses ESPN’s reported field; its lookback window is not specified. Saved model estimates are supporting evidence, not independent votes.

THE HOLD, NOT JUST THE CLAIM

What comes after this week?

Future FF estimates are separate from the current-week pickup call. Totals describe the player, not extra points for your roster. Weeks 15–18 are a calendar view; your league’s playoff weeks may differ. Green highlights the higher displayed projection when both outlooks are known; ties and incomplete comparisons stay neutral.

Window	Harrison Butker	Wil Lutz
Next 3 weeks	25.5 FPHigher projection3/3 scheduled games projected	15.9 FP2/2 scheduled games projected · 1 bye
Remaining regular-season schedule	96.0 FPHigher projection11/11 scheduled games projected	81.8 FP10/10 scheduled games projected · 1 bye
Weeks 15–18	35.7 FPHigher projection4/4 scheduled games projected	32.8 FP4/4 scheduled games projected

Weekly pickup outlook

Week	Harrison Butker	Wil Lutz
Week 8	7.8 FPvs DEN	7.8 FPvs KC
Week 9	8.9 FPvs NYJHigher projection	8.1 FPvs CAR
Week 10	8.8 FPvs ATLHigher projection	BYE
Week 11	9.0 FPvs ARIHigher projection	8.4 FPvs LV
Week 12	8.8 FPvs BUFHigher projection	8.4 FPvs PIT
Week 13	8.5 FPvs LARHigher projection	8.4 FPvs MIA
Week 14	8.6 FPvs CINHigher projection	7.9 FPvs NYJ
Week 15	8.8 FPvs NEHigher projection	8.2 FPvs LV
Week 16	9.5 FPvs SFHigher projection	8.4 FPvs BUF
Week 17	8.5 FPvs LACHigher projection	8.0 FPvs NE
Week 18	8.9 FPvs LVHigher projection	8.2 FPvs LAC

Outlook updated Oct 31, 2:18 PM ET. Health and roles can change.

PICKUP RANKINGS · K

More options. The same scale.

FF expected-points order within this pickup pool, with higher FF-minus-ESPN margin breaking displayed ties. Available model ranges provide context.

2.3 FP18.9 FP

Cam LittleK · 67.0% rostered
10.1
Brandon AubreyK · 96.4% rostered
9.9
Tyler BassK · 62.3% rostered
9.8
Chris BoswellK · 79.0% rostered
9.7
Evan McPhersonK · 22.3% rostered
9.2

What about Wil Lutz versus these pickups?

K · Week 8

Tyler Loop8.0projected FP

Wil Lutz7.8projected FP

Compare the pickups ↗K · Week 8

Wil Lutz7.8projected FP

Jake Bates7.7projected FP

Compare the pickups ↗K · Week 8

Wil Lutz7.8projected FP

Andre Szmyt7.5projected FP

Compare the pickups ↗K · Week 8

Wil Lutz7.8projected FP

Brandon McManus7.5projected FP

Compare the pickups ↗

More K pickup decisions

Recorded comparison interest informs the order where available, followed by nearby projected options. These are not claims that both players are free agents in your league.

K · Week 8

Cam Little10.1projected FP