Should I drop Justin Herbert for Sam Darnold?

One scoring page covers these positions; reception points do not affect this comparison.

THE DROP / ADD CALL

The right move depends on the weeks you need

Sam Darnold is ahead by 2.5 FP this week, ahead by 0.5 FP across the remaining schedule, and ahead by 1.5 FP in Weeks 15–18. The horizons disagree or are too close for an unconditional drop. Use GamePlan to check your actual starters, bench depth and league playoff weeks. These are player forecast totals, not extra starter points or playoff-odds gains for your team.

Forecast updated Oct 30, 2:05 PM ET

PLAYER TO DROP

Justin Herbert

QB · LAC · vs LAR

Stats & schedule ›

12.8FF projected FP

Nov 1, 4:05 PM ET

35.1%rostered on ESPN-0.86 pp recent change

PLAYER TO ADD

Sam Darnold

QB · SEA · vs CHI

Stats & schedule ›

15.3FF projected FP

Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET

30.4%rostered on ESPN-0.17 pp recent change

WHY THIS MOVE?

A better week is only part of the decision.

Justin Herbert is 35.1% rostered; Sam Darnold is 30.4% rostered on ESPN. Ownership describes availability across leagues, not yours. Compare the weeks you need covered and the value you give up. A replacement can help now while weakening a later lineup.

Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert projects for 12.8 Standard points against LAR this week. His recent scoring average is 9.5 FP. He is rostered in 35.1% of ESPN leagues, with a reported decline of 0.86 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

Fortified Fantasy: 12.8 FP
ESPN: 10.9 FP
Sleeper: 12.7 FP
FantasyPros: 13.9 FP
Boosted Trees: 11.3 FP
Workload: 11.0 FP
Monte Carlo: 10.7 FP

Boosted Trees: Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET
Workload: Experimental · saved Oct 28, 9:08 PM ET
Monte Carlo: Experimental · central 80%: 4.5–17.3 FP · saved Oct 28, 9:16 PM ET

Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold projects for 15.3 Standard points against CHI this week. His recent scoring average is 11.1 FP. The defensive matchup raises the FF estimate by 1.25%. He is rostered in 30.4% of ESPN leagues, with a reported decline of 0.17 percentage points. Roster trends measure manager activity, not a guarantee of playing time or availability in your league.

Fortified Fantasy: 15.3 FP
ESPN: 14.5 FP
Sleeper: 14.9 FP
FantasyPros: 16.5 FP
Boosted Trees: 16.4 FP
Workload: 14.2 FP
Monte Carlo: 14.8 FP

Boosted Trees: Experimental · saved Oct 27, 12:03 AM ET
Workload: Experimental · includes FantasyPros stat inputs · saved Oct 28, 9:08 PM ET
Monte Carlo: Experimental · central 80%: 6.2–23.7 FP · saved Oct 28, 9:16 PM ET

Roster snapshot Oct 30, 1:30 PM ET. Saved models support the assessment; they are not independent votes. A full roster and league settings are needed to evaluate starter impact.

THE HOLD, NOT JUST THE CLAIM

What comes after this week?

The Drop / Add assessment uses the immediate and future FF outlook together. Totals describe the player, not extra points for your roster. Weeks 15–18 are a calendar view; your league’s playoff weeks may differ. Green highlights the higher displayed projection when both outlooks are known; ties and incomplete comparisons stay neutral.

Window	Justin Herbert	Sam Darnold
Next 3 weeks	39.3 FP3/3 scheduled games projected	49.3 FPHigher projection3/3 scheduled games projected
Remaining regular-season schedule	144.5 FP11/11 scheduled games projected	145.0 FPHigher projection10/10 scheduled games projected · 1 bye
Weeks 15–18	50.4 FP4/4 scheduled games projected	51.9 FPHigher projection4/4 scheduled games projected

Weekly Drop / Add outlook

Week	Justin Herbert	Sam Darnold
Week 8	12.8 FPvs LAR	15.3 FPvs CHIHigher projection
Week 9	13.5 FPvs HOU	17.6 FPvs ARIHigher projection
Week 10	13.0 FPvs BAL	16.4 FPvs LVHigher projection
Week 11	13.9 FPvs NYJHigher projection	BYE
Week 12	13.1 FPvs NEHigher projection	13.0 FPvs SF
Week 13	12.1 FPvs TB	16.2 FPvs DALHigher projection
Week 14	15.7 FPvs LVHigher projection	14.5 FPvs NYG
Week 15	12.5 FPvs SF	13.7 FPvs PHIHigher projection
Week 16	15.2 FPvs MIAHigher projection	12.7 FPvs LAR
Week 17	11.2 FPvs KC	13.2 FPvs CARHigher projection
Week 18	11.4 FPvs DEN	12.3 FPvs LARHigher projection

Outlook updated Oct 30, 2:19 PM ET. Health and roles can change.

PICKUP RANKINGS · QB

More options. The same scale.

FF–Monte Carlo midpoint order within this pickup pool. The window connects two estimates; it is not a confidence interval. Rankings may differ from the FF points-only call above.

14.6 FP18.8 FP